30 mai 2008
Three questions to Alain Juillet about intelligence analysis
March 2006 - Former Deputy Director for Intelligence at the DGSE, and high ranking official in charge of the economic intelligence since 2004, Alain Juillet is a man of reflection and action. We asked him three questions…
M. Juillet, from your point of view, what is the role of the intelligence analyst?
Alain Juillet: The role of an analyst is to cross and exploit the data of all kinds which arrive to him. Within a determined framework, he must be able to detect the weak signals, and to confirm or identify the tendencies, and to bring the most precise possible answers to the questions. He must be able to provide to the customers the maximum of useful information for decision making.
What are his main qualities?
Alain Juillet: Main qualities are the intellectual honesty which avoids the ideological drifts and hasty interpretations, the rigor by taking into account, evaluating and crossing informations of all kinds, the capacity of synthesis being based on a spirit of opening, and to finish humility, because the job teaches you that in addition to the method and the intuition, one needs a also little chance.
How do you see his relation with the decision maker?
Alain Juillet: He should not be influenced by the decision maker, and he must not twist reality to answer political wishes. His relation must be of a total frankness since he works with facts. The role of the decision maker is to build the strategy and fix a policy starting from the provided analyzes.
Alain DEWERPE, Espion, une anthropologie historique du secret d’Etat contemporain
Paru aux éditions Gallimard, Bibliothèque des histoires, 1994
Je ne pouvais pas débuter cette rubrique sans une présentation d’un ouvrage fondamental pour la recherche sur le renseignement. Alain Dewerpe est directeur de recherche à l’IHESS, il se dit outsider vis-à-vis du monde du renseignement, et se livre à une lecture critique de la documentation publique. La recherche ouverte est ici appliquée à la manière des scientifiques : rigoureuse, foisonnante, toujours maîtrisée, et finalement fondue dans un texte dense, vif et riche. Rien n’est laissé au hasard, pas de place pour la spéculation, encore moins pour les vérités toutes faites.
Autant le dire, résumer cet ouvrage est impossible. L’auteur passe pratiquement tout en revue, à la lumière de documents historiques, d’articles de presse, de romans et de films : le mal nécessaire, la guerre de l’ombre, le soupçon civique, l’équipe clandestine et le métier de seigneur, l’érudition d’Etat, les drames du rôle, le scandale de la révélation… autant de titres porteurs de sens, et caractéristiques du style de l'auteur. Une analyse fine, sans concession mais toujours neutre. Aucune révélation, sinon celle du secret même du renseignement, inqualifiable, presque banal, et pourtant si présent à chaque page de l’ouvrage. On tient ici la preuve de ce que l’information ouverte représente bien l’essentiel de la connaissance, y compris s’agissant d’un univers aussi fermé que celui du renseignement. Mais l’auteur ne démontre-t-il pas a contrario, que la révélation est au cœur même du secret ?
A lire et relire sans réserve, par les chercheurs et lecteurs avertis, désireux d’un regard vraiment intelligent sur le monde du renseignement.
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The Spy, an Anthropology of the Contemporary Secret of State. Alain DEWERPE, 1994
I could not begin this book review, without presenting a fundamental work for research on intelligence. Alain Dewerpe is research director with the IHESS. He is an outsider with respect of the IC. But his work rests on a critical reading of public documentation. Open research is applied here to the manner of the scientists: rigorous, plentiful, always controlled, and finally melted in a dense, sharp and rich text. Nothing is left randomly, and there is no place for the speculation, even less for dogmatism or ideology.
To summarize this work is impossible. The author passes every issue in review, in the light of historical documents, of press articles, novels and films. No revelation, except that of the secrecy of intelligence itself, almost banal, and yet so present at each page of the book. One has here the demonstration that open information represents the essence of knowledge, including in a universe as closed as that of intelligence. But doesn't the author show that the revelation is the counterpart of the secrecy?
A book intended for the researchers and readers informed, who wish to have a really intelligent glance on the world of the information.
http://www.amazon.fr/Espion-Alain-Dewerpe/dp/2070737799
29 mai 2008
La rumeur sur Internet : cadre et méthode de recherche
La rumeur est un phénomène ancien, «le plus vieux média du monde » selon J-N-Kapferer (1987). Pourtant, l’apparition des «rumeurs électroniques » pose de manière aiguë la question de l’adaptation de la rumeur à son mode de transmission. Internet est-il le médium rêvé de la rumeur ? Peut-on le considérer objectivement comme un espace dangereux en termes de risques informationnels? Il s’agira ici de pointer quelques paradoxes qui surgissent quand on tente de penser conjointement la rumeur et son outil de diffusion. On peut également s’interroger sur la persistance de la rumeur dans un contexte de «surinformation » et d’essor des nouvelles technologies d’information et de communication. Afin de mieux comprendre le phénomène de la rumeur sur Internet il semblerait qu’il soit indispensable de l’aborder à la fois sous un angle technique et social.
Our purpose in this article is to present some reflexion and experimentation keys within the framework of a work about rumour phenomenon on Internet. Rumour is an ancient phenomenon, « the older medium of the world » according to J-N-Kapferer (1987). However, the appearance of « electronic rumours » arises by an acute way the question of the rumour adaptation to its mode of transmission. Is Internet the dreamt medium for the rumor expansion ? We’ll also try to approach several paradoxes which appear as soon as we both think rumour and its way of spreading. We’ll interest in the rumour constancy within the context of « overinformation » and development of information and communication new technologies. In order to better understand the rumour phenomenon on Internet it’s indispensable employ technical and social approach.
Emilie FERRE - Franck BULINGE - Article non publié - 2006
Developing Competitive Intelligence in Africa
The era of information supported the development of management practices such as business intelligence or competitive intelligence for which, recently, Africa and its financials seem to be interressed. We propose to show throught the review of the projects and works relating to the development of business intelligence how " Africa " thinks about "its model of business intelligence". The analysis of these reflexions in comparison with the conclusions of the compared analyses of others business intelligence models all over the world will enable us to highlight weaknesses of “African model of business intelligence” axed on "the unit of Africa". In the same way the link between the national policy of information and the development of business intelligence will justify the need for carrying out national reflexions.
Aminata DIALLO & Franck BULINGE - International Conference - ESCE IE - Paris 2006
Download this article : http://www.esce.fr/web_fr/fichiers_PDF/Diallo_Bulinge_IECI_2006.PDF
Intelligence analysis : Towards a Change of Paradigm
Intelligence analysis is frequently referred as the art of turning information into knowledge. It has been developed and practiced as an individual craft by experts. Today, analysts are confronted with situations which are more and more complex. To solve these systemic problems, it is necessary to develop a collective approach of IA. This paper discusses a new IA tradecraft, associated with the decision making process, as a new paradigm of strategic and operational knowledge.
Franck BULINGE - International Conference IE-ESCE, Paris La Défense , November 16th, 2006
Download this article : http://www.esce.fr/web_fr/fichiers_PDF/Bulinge_IECI_2006.pdf
Renseignement français : les origines d'une culture négative
L’amiral Lacoste écrit dans ses mémoires (Un amiral au secret, Flammarion, 1997) : « En dépit de mes efforts et de ma volonté de dialogue, je n’ai pu modifier le climat général de méfiance et d’incompréhension si caractéristique de la conception qu’on a en France des services de renseignement. Pour une majorité de nos concitoyens, cela relève de l’ignorance teintée d’un rejet pour tout ce qui est secret…».
(…) en franchissant le seuil de l’interdit, l’espion franchit la frontière entre l’apparence et la réalité, le Miroir aux espions de John Le Carré ou la diagonale du double de Constantin Melnik (Un espion dans le siècle, Plon, 1994). Il renvoie à de troublantes pulsions, entre le désir et la peur, entre le plaisir et la honte, ôtant à chacun le choix de l’indifférence.
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Le rejet de l’espion émanerait-il d’un clivage entre civils et militaires ? Par une sorte d’ironie de l’histoire, l’espion n’est pas plus apprécié chez les soldats français que dans la société civile. Car la tradition militaire condamne l’espionnage et l’espion est publiquement désavoué.
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A partir des années soixante, l’emploi du terme « barbouze » renvoie l’espion à l’image confuse et ambiguë des services d’ordre de certains partis politiques : « Des barbouzes recrutées au sein du SAC jetteront le discrédit sur l’Etat et sur l’idée même des services secrets », précise Constantin Melnik.
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Il faut attendre la guerre froide, source d’inspiration d’une littérature et d’une filmographie importante, pour que l’espion trouve un peu de légitimité.
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Cette littérature aura cependant pour conséquence d’alimenter le fantasme collectif dans une dialectique ambiguë, entre le rejet et la fascination. Alain Dewerpe (Espion, une anthropologie historique du secret d’Etat contemporain, Gallimard, 1994) souligne ainsi qu’entre « aventures imaginaires qui se veulent plus vraies que la vérité et épisodes vécus qui semblent plus imaginaires que l’imaginaire : nulle part ailleurs, la limite entre l’ordre du réel et celui de la littérature n’est aussi floue ».
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En France, le renseignement est méconnu non seulement du public, mais également des média, des hommes politiques et jusqu’aux scientifiques, qui évitent ce champ de recherche difficilement exploitable en raison de la faiblesse bibliographique et de la nature essentiellement secrète de cette activité.
…
L’Etat et ses représentants, lorsqu’ils ne maîtrisent pas la culture du renseignement, peuvent devenir des émetteurs d’ordres ambigus. Ils laissent alors aux agents l’initiative de traduire leur volonté politique, avec un risque d’erreur d’autant plus grand que le recours à l’action illégale suggère un usage oral empreint d’euphémismes et de mots couverts, forme de « pudeur hypocrite », selon Constantin Melnik (Des services très secrets, De Fallois, 1989), face à l’acte inavouable.
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La culture du renseignement français sera longtemps tributaire d’une morale intellectuelle héritée du siècle des Lumières. La méfiance, le dégoût et la fascination semblent ancrés dans l’inconscient collectif. Dans cette dialectique quasi freudienne, entre « totem et tabou », il semble difficile pour le renseignement de se frayer un chemin vers la reconnaissance. Encore très improbable sur le plan socio-culturelle, cette reconnaissance semble cependant émerger au niveau politique. L’hommage rendu par le chef de l’Etat le 13 juillet 2002 aux agents de la DGSE, ainsi que sa visite officielle à la DRM (Direction du renseignement militaire) et au COS (Commandement des opérations spéciales) en septembre 2002, constituent une première dans l’histoire de la République.
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Franck BULINGE - Défense nationale, décembre 2004
La recherche française sur le renseignement, une utopie?
La communauté américaine du renseignement semble avoir pris la mesure des nouveaux défis auxquels doit faire face l’analyse de renseignement. Après un colloque international organisé en 2005 par l’association de recherche Mitre, financée par le gouvernement (http://www.mitre.org/), un rapport intitulé "The Future of Intelligence Analysis" a été publié en mars 2006, par le Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), sous l’égide du Directeur adjoint du National Intelligence for Education and Training, Université du Maryland. En voici quelques extraits, le rapport étant disponible sur http://www.cissm.umd.edu/ (pdf)
“This study contains the findings and recommendations of the Future of Intelligence Analysis Project, an eighteen-month effort that explored what must be done to provide the US government with an effective intelligence analysis capability in the future.”
(...)“The project focused on intelligence analysis and organized its research around the themes of analyst education, recruitment, training, management, organization, and retention”
(...)“The report concluded that, if current practices continue, the intelligence community (IC) of 2020 will experience an imbalance between the demand for effective overall intelligence analysis and the outputs of the individually-oriented elements and outlooks of its various analytic communities.”
(...)“The next few years are critical because the present time offers a rare opportunity for implementing significant changes to improve the effectiveness of the intelligence enterprise.”
(...)“Overall, this report calls for an “integrated culture” across the intelligence community in order to provide the nation with the analytic outputs that the coming environment will require. The project’s findings fall into four broad categories: those dealing with IC culture; those pertaining to analyst leadership, management, and career dynamics; those concerning education and training; and those dealing with implementation strategies.”
(...)“With regard to education and training, the report’s seventh finding identifies a crucial need to develop education and training programs that not only improve analysis directly but also professionalize the analytic workforce.”
Ce projet montre l’importance accordée par les Etats-Unis à l’analyse de renseignement, alors qu’en France, il n’existe à ce jour aucune initiative officielle sur la question. Or l’analyse est au cœur du processus de construction de connaissance, et elle intéresse aussi bien le gouvernement (SGDN, CIR), les services de police (DST, RG, UCLAT), les armées (DRM, DPSD, Gendarmerie, DGSE), que les magistrats instructeurs, les spécialistes de l’IE, les risk managers, les fondations et les "think tanks"…
Peut-on aujourd’hui encore, se passer d’une recherche et d’un enseignement à la fois scientifiques et opérationnels? C'est pour répondre à cette question, que j'ai décidé de rédiger un mémoire d'habilitation à diriger des recherches, au sein de l'université de Toulon.
"The Future of Intelligence Analysis" (pdf)
War Room, a Model for Real Time Collective Analysis
While strategical challenges are getting more and more complex, information and knowledge management are essential factors in the process of decision making. In the global world where uncertainty and complexity turn the decision into a risk, it becomes necessary to find new models of intelligence analysis in order to make the right decision at the right time. As long as we consider decision making as an individual function, with cognitive biases and heuristics, it will be a danger for the organisations. That’s why we propose to explore the concept of collective intelligence analysis within the “war room”, considered as an operational model as well as a model of education and training.
Franck BULINGE - Market Management, Vol.7 N°4 - December 2007
Intelligence Cycle : a Critical Analysis of an Empirical Model
Military intelligence has developed an empiric model to turn information into knowledge versus intelligence. This model is called intelligence cycle (IC). At the beginning of the 90s, even though the Intelligence Community experienced a crisis due to the end of the Cold war, business intelligence emerged as a promising market for many young retired intelligence officers. Competitive intelligence (CI) became a new field of expertise by transfering their knowledge (intelligence tradecraft) in the competitive world of the enterprises. IC has become a paradigm for CI students who now learn it as a methodological, functional and organizational tool. The appropriation of this “Swiss knife” is supposed to give them the keys of CI, in order to collect, process, disseminate and share operational knowledge. However, if we consider the origin of IC, we can say that its transfert has been based on a partial interpretation of the military model. This could explain, from our point of view, the difficulty encountered by the firms to make it effective in a CI process. Moreover, we suppose that a wrong adaptation of the model could have bad consequences on the information and knowledge management.The purpose of this article is to develop a critical approach of IC considered in the field of strategic intelligence and competitive intelligence. We propose to study the intelligence process through IC model in order to define the limits in which it can be effective and useful.
Franck BULINGE - Market Management Review, N°3-2006
A framework for competitive intelligence education
In spring 2004, Alain Juillet created a commission for education, inviting 14 experts (I was one of them) to work at the elaboration of a national framework destined to become the “label” for CI studies.
After nine months of brainstorming and knowledge management, the team published the a framework for CI education, built on the five pillars of CI knowledge as it should be taught. However, as far as the framework is a guide for developing homogeneous national programs, it is not the ultimate mean to become the best course in the charts. It gives indications to develop the right learning contents, but it doesn’t give the way of the good strategy, methods and tools.
1 - International environment and competitiveness
Both the society of information and the economy of immaterial are changing the traditional order of economical exchanges. The information and knowledge market is a new exchange and trading space. CI gives the ability to change information into operational and strategic knowledge.
Rethinking strategies of the companies and governments, CI is considered as a cultural and operational response to globalisation in the society of information.
Teaching goals: to identify and analyse geopolitics and economic keys in order to guide stakeholders and decision makers.
Topics: Theory of information; Globalisation; Geopolitics and geo-economy; Organizations of international trading; Non governmental organisations and alternative movements ; Competition and economic warfare; Technologies of information and knowledge; Knowledge and information intensive firms; Information market; CI research; National CI systems and organizations; Global risk management; Informational risks; Economical crime; Economical defence and security; History of CI; Compared National systems of CI
Keywords: Globalisation, competitiveness; multinational firms; geo-economics; data; information; knowledge; technologies of information; knowledge management; risk management
2- CI and organizations
CI must be taken by firms as a model of management. But scientific studies show that they have some difficulty acquiring and implenting on regular basis. The phenomenon was identified as a cultural problem. It will evolve over a long time, through education.
Teaching goals:
- To define the stakes of CI as a success key factor to achieve strategic goals.
- To organize and quicken internal conferences to advise the employees and managers within firms and administrations
- To form, carry out, supervise and control a CI project
Topics: Strategy, information and Decision making; Strategic analysis; CI project management; Communication and psychology of organisations; Network centric management; Ethics, rights, legality of CI; CI organizational and operational Process; CI marketing; Inside and outside CI actors; Internal audit of information and CI; Evaluation, indicators, instrument panels
Keywords: strategy, analysis, success key factors; decision making; CI project; right, ethics, networks, outsourcing, audit, evaluation
3 - Information and knowledge management
Intelligence cycle is considered as the heart of CI process: defining the needs, collecting and analysing data, disseminating information and knowledge to decision makers.
Teaching goals:
- To identify and define the information problems and needs of the organisation
- To organize the data-to-information and knowledge process
- To manage the relationship between information collectors, analysts and decision makers.
Topics: Strategic analysis and informational needs; Sourcing: typology of information, identification and use of sources; Methods, techniques and tools; Right, ethics and deontology; Psychology and human factor in interrelationship; Multicultural factors; Intelligence analysis; Decision aid; Groupware; Knowledge management
Keywords: Intelligence cycle, Knowledge management, strategic analysis, information sourcing, scanning methods and tools; right, ethics and deontology
4 - Security and defence of immaterial patrimony
Identify and protect the competitive assets of the organizations.
Teaching goals:
- To define and organize the strategy of information security
- To manage informational risks
- To prevent and manage informational crisis
Topics: Information and knowledge patrimony; Intellectual and industrial property; Strategy and use of patents; Security policy and information systems; Management of crisis
Keywords: intellectual and industrial property, patents, trade mark, copyright, infringement, security, informational crisis
5 - Influence and counter-influence
In a context of hypercompetition, information is considered as an arm used for disinformation, intoxi-cation, and destabilization. It is necessary to identify the risks and threats that can affect the strategy of a firm or a government.
Lobbying is largely used in the strategy of influence by firms or by groups of interest. It can determine the decisions of international organization at the expense of firms regarding the traditional competitive rules.
Teaching goals:
- To identify information risks (disinformation, rumors, perception management, deception)
- To identify and understand the strategies of influence and counter-influence
- To use information and knowledge as offensive and defensive strategic tools
Topics: Strategies of influence and counter-influence; Methods, techniques and tools of influence; Psychology of manipulation and disinformation; Perception management; Offensive and defensive use of information and knowledge; Lobbying; To form and carry out a strategy of influence and counter-influence; Evaluate and manage the risks of influence
Keywords: influence, lobbying, disinformation, stakeholders, destabilisation, non governmental organizations, rumour
Download the French Framework for CI education : http://www.intelligence-economique.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/referentiel_IE_numerote.pdf
